Although expectations were for a reduced ending corn stock for 2011-12, USDA left its estimate the same as last month for ending stocks and other supply and usage data, according to the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate” report this week. Therefore, ending corn stocks for 2011-12 remain at 801 million bushels or 6.3 percent of total corn usage during this crop year.
With other components of the supply-demand balance sheet also unchanged, corn for ethanol and by-products stayed at 5.000 billion bushels and corn exports held steady at 1.7 billion bushels. USDA did narrow its estimate for the average 2011-2012 farm price for corn by 10 cents on both end of the price range to its new estimate of $6.00-$6.40 per bushel. Analysts outside USDA generally see larger supplies of more affordable wheat being used for feed this year. In addition, with the corn crop being planted earlier than normal, more new-crop corn will be available in August before this current corn-crop-year expires at the end of August.
Soybean ending stocks for 2011-13 were reduced by 25 million bushels for last month’s report to 250 million bushels now expected. This level would represent 8.2 percent of total soybean usage during 2011-12. Soybean crushings and the exports estimate were both raised from last month’s estimate, which lead to the lower stocks estimate. The average farm price for soybeans during 2011-12 is likely to be between $12.00 to $12.50 pr bushel compared with $11.40 to $12.60 per bushel last month.
