USDA’s December 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed that broiler production was raised for the third quarter, but there were no changes in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the export market is raised for 2024 based on recent trade data and 2025 based on high production.
Chicken: The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is increased as higher poultry and beef production is partially offset by lower pork production. Broiler production is raised on revised production data for the third quarter, with no changes to the fourth-quarter forecast. For 2025, broiler production for the first quarter is raised based on recent hatchery data indicating more production in the early parts of the year. Finally, as mentioned above, the broiler export forecast is raised for 2024 based on recent trade data. The broiler export forecast for 2025 is also raised based on higher production.
Corn: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol has raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. Data implies corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. Corn exports have raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion, reflecting the pace of sales and shipments. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price producers receive is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Soybean: Soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. Since last month, soybean oil production has increased due to a higher extraction rate. Exports are raised 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. Food, feed, and other industrial uses of soybean oil have reduced by 200 million pounds, leaving soybean oil ending stocks down slightly, similar to the 2023/24 marketing year. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, down $0.60 from last month. The soybean meal price forecast is reduced by $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound.
The full WASDE report for the month can be found here.
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| FEED GRAINS | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Proj. | 2024/25 Proj. | |
| Nov | Dec | ||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 100 | 107.5 | 101.6 | 101.6 | |
| Area Harvested | 86.6 | 96 | 90.7 | 90.7 | |
| Metric Tons | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 4.11 | 4.19 | 4.37 | 4.37 | |
| Million Metric Tons | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 37.5 | 37.1 | 47.7 | 47.7 | |
| Production | 356.1 | 402.6 | 396.9 | 396.9 | |
| Imports | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| Supply, Total | 396.5 | 442 | 446.8 | 446.8 | |
| Feed and Residual | 142.2 | 150.9 | 151.8 | 151.8 | |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 172.1 | 179 | 178.2 | 179.4 | |
| Domestic, Total | 314.4 | 329.9 | 330 | 331.2 | |
| Exports | 45.1 | 64.4 | 64.8 | 68.6 | |
| Use, Total | 359.4 | 394.3 | 394.8 | 399.8 | |
| Ending Stocks | 37.1 | 47.7 | 52 | 47 | |
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| Year and Quarter | U.S. Quarterly Broiler Production (Million Pounds) |
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Broiler Products (Cents/Lbs) |
|
| 2023 | IV | 11611 | 118.5 |
| Annual | 46387 | 124.4 | |
| 2024 | I | 11430 | 128 |
| II | 11654 | 132.1 | |
| III | 12003 | 127.4 | |
| IV* | 12100 | 130 | |
| Annual | |||
| Nov Proj. | 47184 | 129.4 | |
| Dec Proj. | 47187 | 129.4 | |
| 2025 | I* | 11800 | 131 |
| II* | 11825 | 132 | |
| III* | 12200 | 128 | |
| Annual | |||
| Nov Proj. | 47850 | 130 | |
| Dec Proj. | 47925 | 130 | |
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| U.S. Broiler Supply and Use (Million Pounds) |
|||||||||
| Start Stock |
Prod. | Imports | Total Supply |
Exports | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
Per Capita |
||
| 2023 | 892 | 45890 | 131 | 46914 | 7260 | 835 | 38819 | 99.5 | |
| 2024 Proj. | Nov | 835 | 46679 | 149 | 47663 | 6717 | 780 | 40167 | 102.4 |
| Dec | 835 | 46682 | 147 | 47664 | 6742 | 790 | 40133 | 102.3 | |
| 2025 Proj. | Nov | 780 | 47338 | 140 | 48258 | 6780 | 790 | 40688 | 103.1 |
| Dec | 790 | 47412 | 140 | 48342 | 6795 | 790 | 40757 | 103.3 | |
