USDA’s October 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed that broiler forecasts for 2025 are raised, as is the forecast for 2024. However, the broiler forecast for exports are now lowered for 2024 and 2025.
Chicken: The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month with higher beef, broiler, and turkey production forecasts, partially offset by lower pork production. Broiler production forecasts are raised based on production data reported through the third quarter. For 2025, broiler production is raised based on recent hatchery data that suggests higher production during the first quarter of 2025. The broiler export forecast for 2024 is lowered, as higher reported exports for the third quarter are more than offset by lower expected exports for the fourth quarter due to price competition from global exporters, particularly Brazil. The 2025 export broiler forecast is also reduced.
Corn: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 60 million from last month on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With supply falling and no change to use, corn ending stocks are down to 1.9 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Soybean: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2024/25 include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, down 121 million on reduced yields. The largest production changes are for Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. Exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.8 billion on lower supplies and sales to date. Crush is lowered 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion, reflecting lower soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean ending stocks are lowered 80 million bushels to 470 million bushels.
The full November 2024 WASDE report can be found here.
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| FEED GRAINS | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Proj. | 2024/25 Proj. | |
| Oct | Nov | ||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 100 | 107.5 | 101.6 | 101.6 | |
| Area Harvested | 86.6 | 96 | 90.7 | 90.7 | |
| Metric Tons | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 4.11 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 4.37 | |
| Million Metric Tons | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 37.5 | 37.1 | 47.7 | 47.7 | |
| Production | 356.1 | 402.6 | 398 | 396.9 | |
| Imports | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| Supply, Total | 396.5 | 442 | 447.9 | 446.8 | |
| Feed and Residual | 142.2 | 150.9 | 151.4 | 151.8 | |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 172.1 | 179 | 178.2 | 178.2 | |
| Domestic, Total | 314.4 | 329.9 | 329.6 | 330 | |
| Exports | 45.1 | 64.4 | 64.8 | 64.8 | |
| Use, Total | 359.4 | 394.3 | 394.4 | 394.8 | |
| Ending Stocks | 37.1 | 47.7 | 53.5 | 52 | |
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| Year and Quarter | U.S. Quarterly Broiler Production (Million Pounds) |
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Broiler Products (Cents/Lbs) |
|
| 2023 | IV | 11611 | 118.5 |
| Annual | 46387 | 124.4 | |
| 2024 | I | 11430 | 128 |
| II | 11654 | 132.1 | |
| III | 12001 | 127.4 | |
| IV* | 12100 | 130 | |
| Annual | |||
| Oct Proj. | 47084 | 129.1 | |
| Nov Proj. | 47184 | 129.4 | |
| 2025 | I* | 11725 | 132 |
| II* | 11825 | 133 | |
| III* | 12200 | 127 | |
| Annual | |||
| Oct Proj. | 47825 | 129 | |
| Nov Proj. | 47850 | 130 | |
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| U.S. Broiler Supply and Use (Million Pounds) |
|||||||||
| Start Stock |
Prod. | Imports | Total Supply |
Exports | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
Per Capita |
||
| 2023 | 892 | 45890 | 131 | 46914 | 7260 | 835 | 38819 | 99.5 | |
| 2024 Proj. | Oct | 835 | 46580 | 148 | 47563 | 6721 | 800 | 40042 | 102.1 |
| Nov | 835 | 46679 | 149 | 47663 | 6717 | 780 | 40167 | 102.4 | |
| 2025 Proj. | Oct | 800 | 47313 | 160 | 48273 | 6810 | 805 | 40658 | 103.1 |
| Nov | 780 | 47338 | 140 | 48258 | 6780 | 790 | 40688 | 103.1 | |
