USDA’s September 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed broiler production is raised for 2024 based on current slaughter data and hatchery data, which point toward more chicks placed in the third and fourth quarters.
Chicken: The red meat and poultry production forecast for 2024 is raised from last month on higher beef, pork, and broiler forecasts. The forecast for 2025 is also raised. Broiler production is raised as producers respond to improving margins. Recent trade data lowered broiler exports for 2024 are lower based on current trade data, but export forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged. The broiler price forecast for 2025 has been raised slightly.
Corn: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 55 million bushels lower based on increased exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023/24. Corn production for 2024/25 is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre. The harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks are reduced by 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price producers receive is lowered by 10 cents to $4.10 per bushel.
Soybean: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2024/25 include lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect a slight increase to crush for 2023/24. Soybean production for 2024/25 is projected to decrease by 3 million bushels to 4.6 billion. With 2024/25 soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 550 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively. Other changes this month include lower peanut and cottonseed production.
The full report can be found here.
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| FEED GRAINS | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Proj. | 2024/25 Proj. | |
| Aug | Sep | ||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 100 | 107.5 | 101.8 | 101.8 | |
| Area Harvested | 86.6 | 96 | 90.8 | 90.8 | |
| Metric Tons | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 4.11 | 4.19 | 4.36 | 4.38 | |
| Million Metric Tons | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 37.5 | 37.1 | 50.3 | 48.9 | |
| Production | 356.1 | 402.6 | 396 | 397.6 | |
| Imports | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| Supply, Total | 396.5 | 442.1 | 448.6 | 448.7 | |
| Feed and Residual | 142.2 | 150.3 | 151.5 | 151.5 | |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 172.1 | 178.6 | 178.2 | 178.2 | |
| Domestic, Total | 314.4 | 328.9 | 329.7 | 329.7 | |
| Exports | 45.1 | 64.3 | 63.5 | 64.1 | |
| Use, Total | 359.4 | 393.2 | 393.1 | 393.8 | |
| Ending Stocks | 37.1 | 48.9 | 55.4 | 54.9 | |
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| Year and Quarter | U.S. Quarterly Broiler Production | U.S. Quarterly Prices for Broiler Products | |
| (Million Pounds) | (Cents/Lbs) | ||
| 2023 | III | 11681 | 115.3 |
| IV | 11611 | 118.5 | |
| Annual | 46387 | 124.4 | |
| 2024 | I | 11430 | 128 |
| II | 11654 | 132.1 | |
| III* | 12000 | 126 | |
| IV* | 12025 | 126 | |
| Annual | |||
| Aug Proj. | 46876 | 128.8 | |
| Sep Proj. | 47109 | 128 | |
| 2025 | I* | 11650 | 129 |
| II* | 11825 | 132 | |
| Annual | |||
| Aug Proj. | 47500 | 127 | |
| Sep Proj. | 47675 | 128 | |
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| U.S. Broiler Supply & Use (Million Pounds) |
|||||||||
| Start Stock |
Prod. | Imports | Total Supply |
Exports | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
Per Capita |
||
| 2023 | 892 | 45890 | 131 | 46914 | 7260 | 835 | 38819 | 99.5 | |
| 2024 Proj. | Aug | 835 | 46374 | 162 | 47371 | 6776 | 790 | 39805 | 101.5 |
| Sep | 835 | 46605 | 148 | 47588 | 6766 | 805 | 40017 | 102 | |
| 2025 Proj. | Aug | 790 | 46992 | 180 | 47962 | 6875 | 800 | 40287 | 102 |
| Sep | 805 | 47165 | 160 | 48130 | 6875 | 805 | 40450 | 102.5 | |
