USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed larger corn supplies and ending stocks, lower soybean ending stocks, and lowered broiler production on a decrease in expected chicks placed and lighter bird weights.
According to the report:
Corn: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 5 million bushels lower based on mostly offsetting trade and corn used for ethanol changes for 2022/23. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month as greater harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. The national average yield is forecast at 173.8 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, up 0.8 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 14.4 billion. With supply rising slightly and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel.
This month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, marginally lower trade, and larger stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is virtually unchanged with an increase for Ukraine largely offset by a decline for the EU. Ukraine corn production is raised on an increase in yield expectations, while EU corn production is lowered based on reductions for France and Bulgaria that are partly offset by an increase for Germany. Foreign barley production is reduced on a decline for Canada that is partly offset by larger production for Russia.
Soybeans: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include lower beginning stocks, production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect an increase for exports in 2022/23. Soybean production is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, down 59 million with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.1 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre is down 0.8 bushels from last month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 1.0 cent to 63.0 cents per pound.
Global 2023/24 soybean crush is reduced 1.8 million tons to 327.7 million on lower crush for Argentina, Pakistan, the EU, Thailand, and the United States. Argentina’s crush is reduced 1.8 million tons to 34.5 million on lower expected supplies over the next several months prior to next year’s harvest. China’s crush is raised 1.0 million tons to 96.0 million in line with higher crush and domestic soybean meal demand in the prior marketing year.
Global soybean exports are reduced 0.4 million tons to 168.4 million as lower U.S. exports are partly offset by higher shipments from Brazil and Ukraine. Imports are reduced for Pakistan, Thailand, the EU, and Indonesia. Conversely, China’s imports for 2022/23 and 2023/24 are increased on higher crush demand and large shipments from Brazil that are expected to continue into the next marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million.
Meat and Poultry: Broiler production is lowered on current slaughter data and expectations of a lower number of chicks placed and lighter bird weights.
For 2024, the red meat and poultry production forecast is reduced on lower broiler production as weaker prices are expected to constrain production growth. No changes are made to beef, pork, or turkey forecasts. The slower pace of egg production growth for 2023 is expected to carry into the first part of 2024, reducing the production forecast.
The full WASDE report for September can be found here.
