USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed an increase in broiler production and exports for the first quarters due to an increased demand. However, exports fell due to recent discoveries of highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in Chile.
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stocks. Corn imports are lowered 10 million bushels based on observed trade to date. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 5.275 billion based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter. FSI is lowered 10 million bushels reflecting cuts to corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch. With supply and use falling by the same amount, ending stocks are unchanged at 1.342 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $6.60 per bushel.
U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts for 2022/23 are unchanged relative to last month. Soybean and soybean meal prices are also unchanged. The soybean oil price is projected at 64 cents per pound, down two cents. Soybean crush is lowered on reduced supplies and slow pace to date for Argentina, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt. Crush for Argentina is reduced 3.3 million tons to 32 million leading to lower product exports. Partly offsetting is higher crush and higher soybean oil and meal exports for Brazil.
Broiler production is raised for the first half on recent slaughter and hatchery data. Broiler exports are raised on recent data, and imports are reduced on recent discoveries of highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in Chile. Broiler prices are projected higher on the strength of consumer demands.
The full WASDE report can be found here.
Further detailed information can be found in the charts below:
FEED GRAINS | 2020/21 | 2021/22 Est. | 2022/23 Proj. | 2022/23 Proj. | |
Mar | Apr | ||||
Million Acres | |||||
Area Planted | 102.3 | 105.8 | 100.4 | 100.4 | |
Area Harvested | 90.6 | 94.4 | 87.1 | 87.1 | |
Metric Tons | |||||
Yield per Harvested Acre | 4.11 | 4.21 | 4.11 | 4.11 | |
Million Metric Tons | |||||
Beginning Stocks | 51.8 | 34 | 37.6 | 37.6 | |
Production | 372.6 | 397.5 | 358.2 | 358.2 | |
Imports | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | |
Supply, Total | 426.6 | 433.8 | 398.9 | 398.6 | |
Feed and Residual | 146.7 | 148.7 | 137.7 | 137.7 | |
Food, Seed & Industrial | 168.8 | 177.1 | 175.2 | 175 | |
Domestic, Total | 315.4 | 325.8 | 312.9 | 312.7 | |
Exports | 77.2 | 70.5 | 49.4 | 49.4 | |
Use, Total | 392.6 | 396.2 | 362.3 | 362.1 | |
Ending Stocks | 34 | 37.6 | 36.5 | 36.5 | |
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Year and Quarter | U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production (Broilers) |
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products (Broilers) |
|
Million Pounds | Cents/lb. | ||
2021 | Annual | 44899 | 101.2 |
2022 | I | 11170 | 135.1 |
II | 11279 | 167.5 | |
III | 11896 | 136.1 | |
IV | 11861 | 123.5 | |
Annual | |||
Mar Est. | 46206 | 140.5 | |
Apr Est. | 46206 | 140.5 | |
2023 | I | 11500 | 124.5 |
II* | 11600 | 137 | |
III* | 12000 | 130 | |
IV* | 11800 | 130 | |
Annual | |||
Mar Proj. | 46750 | 127 | |
Apr Proj. | 46900 | 130.5 | |
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Meat Supply and Use (Broilers in Millions per Pound) |
||||||||
Start Stocks |
Production | Imports | Total Supply |
Exports | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
||
2021 | 830 | 44419 | 155 | 45403 | 7355 | 705 | 37343 | |
2022 Est. | Mar | 705 | 45711 | 176 | 46593 | 7278 | 892 | 38423 |
Apr | 705 | 45711 | 176 | 46593 | 7278 | 892 | 38423 | |
2023 Proj. | Mar | 892 | 46250 | 160 | 47302 | 7315 | 860 | 39127 |
Apr | 892 | 46398 | 60 | 47351 | 7360 | 880 | 39111 |