Broiler production forecasts in 2022 and 2023 were increased on favorable hatchery data, and 2022 and 2023 prices were adjusted down on recent data and stronger production expectations, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report. Forecast 2022 broiler exports were adjusted down on slow shipments in July, and the 2023 export forecast is unchanged.
Broilers in cold storage climbed again, reaching 777.6 million pounds at the end of July – 40 million pounds over the June ending total and 86 million pounds more than the end of last July. The largest month-over-month category increase after “other parts and forms”4 was in leg quarters, which increased by 10 million pounds. Forecast ending stocks for the end of 2022 were adjusted up to 800 million pounds, as indicated by the open box in the chart below. Forecast 2023 ending stocks were also adjusted up to 770 million pounds.
After declining sharply through much of August, national composite wholesale broiler prices may have leveled out in recent weeks. Prices averaged 125.14 cents per pound in the week ending September 9th. The August average price was 130.42 cents per pound. Based on recent prices and increased production expectations, forecast quarterly prices were decreased by six cents to 136 cents per pound in the third quarter and by five cents to 135 cents per pound in the fourth. This would make the annual average 143.4 cents per pound. The average price forecast for 2023 was also adjusted down to 140 cents per pound on increased production expectations.
The full report can be found here.
4 “Other parts and forms” includes whatever is not breast meat, drumsticks, legs, leg quarters, whole birds, thighs, wings, or feet.
