Broiler production forecast for 2022 is lowered on recent declines in average weights and broiler-type layer inventories, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report. Broiler exports are adjusted up on recent data. Production, export, and import forecasts for 2023 are unchanged from last month. Broiler prices are adjusted down in the second quarter based on recent weakening in weekly prices.
Broiler meat production in April was estimated at 3.562 billion pounds, 3.6 percent below April of last year. On a per day basis, slaughter was about 1.4 percent above last year, with April 2022 having one less slaughter day. Declining bird weights also contributed to the decrease. Average weights have been declining since the start of the year, and while this is not seasonally atypical in the first quarter, April weights, which normally increase from March, were lower month-to-month. In April they averaged 6.4 pounds, 0.3 percent lower than March and 0.6 percent lower than 2021. The second-quarter production forecast was adjusted down by 50 million pounds to 11.3 billion pounds based on April slaughter data.
National composite broiler prices averaged 169.67 cents per pound in May. This is 64 cents higher than last May, but only three cents above April’s average price. Weekly prices began to weaken, averaging 168.20 cents per pound in the week ending June 3rd. This is down from a high of 170.24 cents in the week ending May 13th. Based on this downward movement, the second-quarter average price forecast was decreased by two cents to 168 cents per pound. The outlying quarterly price forecasts are unchanged. This makes the 2022 average price forecast 154.5 cents per pound. The 2023 average forecast is unchanged at 149 cents per pound. Wholesale prices for various parts, including wings, tenders, breasts, and boneless/skinless thighs, climbed in the first half of last year. Wing prices have steadily declined since last summer and are closer to typical levels, averaging 190.6 cents per pound in May. Prices for parts that require extra labor, such as boneless and skinless breasts and thighs, remained elevated for much of last year. After remaining relatively steady from May through December of 2021, boneless skinless breasts began climbing in 2022, reaching 352.06 cents per pound in May.
The full report can be viewed here.
