Broiler production forecast was revised up for 2022 based on recent slaughter and hatchery data, while exports were adjusted down, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
Both production and exports are expected to grow in 2023. Broiler prices were adjusted up to an average of 155 cents per pound in 2022 on recent price strength, but 2023 prices are expected to come back down to an average of 150 cents per pound. Broiler production in March totaled 3.994 billion pounds, just below March of last year. While average weights in March were slightly above last year, slaughter was down one percent. February production was revised up slightly to 3.484 billion pounds, making the first-quarter total 11.169 billion pounds. This is an increase of 2.5 percent over the first quarter of 2021.
Projected production in 2022 is increased by 25 million pounds in each remaining quarter as chicken prices remain strong and hatchery indicators are expected to improve. This brings the 2022 production projection to 45.419 billion pounds, a year-over-year increase of 1 percent. Total production in 2023 is forecast at 45.675 billion pounds, about one percent above the 2022 forecast.
Broiler imports were stronger than expected in the first quarter, totaling 42.6 million pounds. This is a 31-percent increase from the first quarter of 2021 and likely reflects relatively strong demand for broiler meat. The United States imports broiler meat from Canada, Chile, and Mexico, but the largest share came from Chile, which accounted for 76 percent of shipments. This is up from a 65-percent share in 2021 thanks to strong prices for chicken parts pulling in more product. The 2022 total import forecast was adjusted up to 178 million pounds, 23 million pounds over the 2021 total. Imports in 2023 are forecast closer to historical levels at 152 million pounds.
The national composite broiler price averaged 166.89 cents per pound in April, an increase of 65 cents from last April. Weekly prices continued climbing through April and reached 169.45 cents per pound in the first week of May. Quarterly price forecasts were adjusted up on recent prices and expectations for strong demand. The second-, third-, and fourth-quarter forecasts for 2022 are 170 cents, 165 cents, and 150 cents, respectively. The annual average forecast for 2022 is 155 cents per pound. Prices are expected to remain elevated in the first quarter of 2023, with the forecast set at 155 cents per pound. This is 20 cents above the first quarter of 2022. However, prices are forecast to settle back later in the year; the 2023 annual average price forecast is 149 cents per pound.
The full report can be viewed here.
