Broiler production forecasts were adjusted up in the third quarter and down in the fourth quarter for a net increase in 2021 production from last month. Forecast broiler exports were adjusted down in 2021 after shipments returned to more typical levels in July. Broiler prices were adjusted up on
recent data, according to USDA’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
Broiler production in July was nearly even with 2020 levels at 3.744 billion pounds, as well as stronger than the previous year due to heavier bird weights. Average broiler live weights in July were two percent heavier than the same month last year. July slaughter was also higher than the same month in 2020 on a per day basis.
Based on strong preliminary data for August, the third-quarter production estimate was adjusted up by 50 million pounds to 11.45 billion pounds.
Weekly broiler chick placements have been below 2019 levels since the first week of August; and as a result, forecast production in the fourth quarter was adjusted down by 20 million pounds to 11.2 billion pounds.
In total, 2021 production is forecast to be fractionally higher than that of 2020. Based on expectations for stronger broiler prices and lower feed costs next year, the 2022 production forecast was adjusted up to 45.34 billion pounds, representing one percent growth over the 2021 production forecast.
Broiler exports totaled 596 million pounds in July. This is a one percent year-over-year increase from July 2020 and closer to historical export levels after a very strong second quarter. Shipments to Mexico in July were stronger than last July but fell from 199 million pounds in June to 133 million pounds.
Compared to average levels during the second quarter, July shipments also decreased to the Philippines, Cuba, Taiwan, and Turkey. The third-quarter broiler export forecast is unchanged at 1.815 billion pounds. The fourth quarter was adjusted down to 1.85 billion pounds, in part due to lowered expectations for production and stocks at the beginning of the quarter. Total exports in 2021 are forecast to grow by about one percent from 2020. The 2022 total export forecast was adjusted down by 40 million pounds to 7.41 billion pounds, a one percent decrease from the 2021 forecast.
The August national composite whole broiler price remained elevated at 104.8 cents per pound, 39 cents above August of 2020. The weekly price was 105.23 cents per pound in the week ending September 3rd. Parts prices also remained high in August, with chicken wing prices averaging 317.39 cents per pound in August. This is not a high for 2021, but more than a dollar over the same month last year. Boneless/skinless breast prices increased slightly from July to 188.22 cents per pound in August. This is also not a 2021 high, but still 73 cents above the same month last year. Wholesale leg quarter prices were 17 cents above August 2020, but less than 2 cents different from the August 2019 average price.
Based on recent price data and strong demand expectations, forecast whole broiler prices were increased by 7 cents to 106 cents per pound in the third quarter and by 6 cents to 95 cents per pound in the fourth quarter. The 2022 annual forecast price was adjusted up to 96 cents per pound.
USDA’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry report can be viewed here.
