Broiler production was revised down on recent placement data. Broiler export forecasts from the third quarter onward are unchanged from last month. Broiler price forecasts for the remainder of 2021 were adjusted up on recent price trends, according to USDA latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
June broiler production was slightly higher than expected at 3.913 billion pounds, an increase of 3.5 percent from June of last year. Second-quarter production totaled 11.221 billion pounds. Weekly broiler chicks placed have been below both 2019 and 2020 levels in most weeks since mid-June. The placement data indicate how many birds will be available for slaughter about 7 weeks later. In the week ending August 7th, placements were two percent below the same week in 2019. Production forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of 2021 were revised down to 11.40 billion pounds and 11.22 billion pounds, respectively. This brings the 2021 annual forecast to 44.734 billion pounds, an increase of less than half a percent over 2020. The 2022 production forecast is unchanged at 45.3 billion pounds, an increase of one percent over the 2021 forecast.
Broiler exports in June totaled 649 million pounds, down from May but a 16-percent increase over last June. Thanks to a strong second quarter, exports in the first half of 2021 were 6 percent above the same period in 2020. Export forecasts in the third and fourth quarters are unchanged at 1.815 billion pounds and 1.890 billion pounds, respectively, as the rate of exports in May and June is not expected to be sustained, especially as total 2021 production is forecast to grow by less than a half percent from 2020. The 2022 export forecast is unchanged at 7.45 billion pounds, a decrease of one percent from the 2021 forecast.
Weekly wholesale broiler prices have stayed above 100 cents per pound since late-April, ending the first week of August at 104.98 cents. July prices averaged 105.5 cents per pound, 17.31 cents above July of 2019. Wholesale prices for high-demand parts like wings and breasts remain high. While monthly boneless/skinless breast prices have come down from a peak in May, July prices were still 67 cents above the same month last year. July average wholesale wing prices were above 3 dollars a pound for the third consecutive month. A seasonal decline in whole broiler prices is still expected in the second half of the year, but based on current price levels, third- and fourth-quarter price forecasts were increased to 99 and 89 cents per pound, respectively. The 2022 price forecast is unchanged at 93 cents per pound.
