Broiler production was adjusted down in the second quarter on low data for May. Broiler exports were adjusted up in the second quarter on strong shipments to Mexico. Broiler prices were adjusted up in the third quarter on strong weekly data, according to USDA’s July Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
May broiler production totaled 3.610 billion pounds, 87 million pounds less than April production and only about 1 percent more than production in May of 2020. Compared to last month, average live weights were only fractionally higher, and slaughter was down 24 million head, though slaughter per day was higher than April. Expected second-quarter production was revised down by 200 million pounds to 11.1 billion pounds based on lower-than-expected production in May. This brings the 2021 total production forecast to 44.7 billion pounds, an increase of less than half a percent from 2020. The 2022 production forecast is unchanged at 45.3 billion pounds, which would represent 1-percent growth over the 2021 forecast.
Exports of broilers in May were higher than expected at 682 million pounds. This was mostly accounted for by stronger-than-expected shipments to Mexico, which increased by 61.8 million pounds from April (see chart). Shipments increased year-over-year to Cuba (+24.5 million pounds), Guatemala (+9.1 million pounds), and Canada (+5.3 million pounds). Shipments to China decreased by 55 million pounds year over year. As the Chinese pork industry recovers from African Swine Fever, there is less demand for substitute meats. Second-quarter exports were revised up to 1.890 billion pounds on strong May numbers. The export forecasts for the third and fourth quarters were adjusted down to 1.815 billion and 1.890 billion pounds, respectively. This brings the 2021 total to 7.449 billion pounds, 1 percent over the 2020 total. The 2022 total forecast remains at 7.450 billion pounds, essentially unchanged from the 2021 forecast.
The national composite weighted average whole-broiler price was 106.39 cents per pound in June, making the second-quarter average price 104.4 cents per pound. Weekly prices reached a 2021 high of 107.24 cents per pound in the week ending June 11th. Prices finished the week ending July 9th at 106.17 cents per pound. As weekly prices and consumer demand remain strong, the third-quarter price forecast was revised up to 97.0 cents per pound. With the fourth-quarter price forecast unchanged at 88.0 cents per pound, the annual average price forecast for 2021 is 93 cents per pound. Wholesale prices for boneless/skinless chicken breasts and chicken wings remain elevated but have decreased from the May peak. Breast prices fell 9 cents from May to June but remain 79.5 cents above June of 2020. June wing prices, which fell 19 cents from May, were 132.7 cents above June of last
year.
USDA July 16, 2021, Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook can be viewed here.
