Broiler production in second-quarter 2021 was revised up to 11.3 billion pounds. The 2021 broiler export forecast was also raised on recent data and increased production expectations. The second-quarter broiler price forecast was adjusted down by one cent, while forecasts for all outlying quarters remain unchanged, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
In April, broiler production totaled 3.696 billion pounds, above 2020 levels for the second month and slightly above April 2019. This was accounted for by year-over-year increases of 1.3 percent in both head slaughtered and average weight. Second-quarter production was revised up to 11.3 billion pounds on recent slaughter data. This brings the 2021 total production forecast to 44.9 billion pounds, a one percent increase over the 2020 total. The 2022 broiler production forecast remains unchanged at 45.3 billion pounds.
April broiler exports totaled 615 million pounds, an increase of five percent over April of last year. Markets with large year-over-year increases included Mexico (+28.5 million pounds), Cuba (+29.7 million pounds), and the Philippines (+44.4 million pounds). The market with the largest year-over-year decrease was China (-45.7 million pounds), whose export share decreased from 13 percent to five percent.
Based on strong export data and increased production expectations, the 2021 broiler export forecast was revised up by 45 million pounds to 7.4 billion pounds. This would be an increase of less than one-half percent over 2020. The 2022 export forecast remains unchanged at 7.45 billion pounds.
In May, national composite wholesale broiler prices averaged 105.41 cents per pound. Weekly prices reached a peak of 106.23 cents per pound in the week ending May 21 and averaged 105.83 in the first week of June. Wholesale prices for boneless/skinless breasts and chicken wings continued climbing in May; for the month, breast prices averaged 212.97 cents per pound and wing prices averaged 325 cents. The forecast broiler price for the second quarter was adjusted down to 104 cents per pound on recent price data. Forecasts for the outlying quarters are unchanged.
The full Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report can be found here.
