Broiler production forecasts are unchanged for 2021 and forecast to increase by one percent in 2022, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report. Broiler exports were adjusted up in the second quarter of 2021. Exports are expected to increase in 2022 by one percent, the same rate of growth as production. Quarterly broiler prices were adjusted up in 2021, reflecting recent price data and strong demand. With rising feed costs expected to reduce production growth, prices are expected to stay high in 2022; both 2021 and 2022 average prices are forecast at 93 cents per pound.
March broiler exports decreased less than expected, totaling 661 million pounds. This was a 2.8-percent decrease from March of 2020. Increases in shipments to Mexico (+9 million pounds), China (+9 million pounds), Cuba (+39 million pounds), Angola (+10 million pounds), and the Philippines (+36 million pounds) were offset by year-over-year decreases in shipments to Taiwan (-21 million pounds), Vietnam (-16 million pounds), Georgia (-22 million pounds), and South Africa (-16 million pounds). The first quarter total was 1.854 billion pounds, a decrease of less than half-a-percent from the first quarter of 2020. The second-quarter export forecast was increased by 15 million pounds, bringing the 2021 total forecast to 7.354 billion pounds, a decrease of less than half-a-percent from 2020. In 2022, broiler exports are forecast to total 7.45 billion pounds, an increase of one percent over the 2021 forecast.
April’s national composite wholesale broiler prices averaged 101.5 cents per pound. Weekly prices reached a high of 105.03 cents per pound in the week ending April 30th and ended the first week of May at 104.49 cents per pound. The steep price increase is likely a result of many factors, including slow production, record low supplies in cold storage, and increasing demand as the economy reopens. Wholesale prices for chicken parts are also climbing. Weekly average chicken drumstick prices at the end of April and early May were almost 51 cents per pound. The April average price was 48.9 cents per pound, about 14 cents above the same month in 2019. Wholesale prices for boneless/skinless breasts, the center of fast-food chicken sandwiches, have also been climbing since the start of 2021. The April average price was 171.92 cents per pound, 44 cents above the same month in 2019. Chicken wings, which have been in high demand as takeout food, have been steadily climbing in price since last year. April was a low point in wholesale wing prices in 2020, but the average price in April 2021 was 291.81 cents per pound, 92 cents above the same month in 2019.
Quarterly whole-bird price forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 were increased, reflecting recent price data, expectations of slowly growing production, and high demand. The second-quarter price was adjusted up to 105 cents per pound, the third quarter to 94 cents per pound, and the fourth quarter to 88 cents per pound. The annual average price forecast for 2021 is 92.7 cents per pound, an increase of 27 percent over the 2020 average. As feed costs are expected to rise, constraining production growth, broiler prices are projected to stay high next year. The annual average price forecast for 2022 is also 93 cents per pound.
May’s full Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report can be viewed here.
