USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on Wednesday released its annual Prospective Plantings report, which anticipates a sharp increase in soybean production for 2021 while corn production remains relatively flat.
The report’s estimates are based on an annual survey of roughly 80,000 farmers that asks about planting intentions for the full 2021 crop year.
Corn:
Growers intend to plant 91.1 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2021, up less than one percent from last year. That is the highest number of corn acres planted since 2016 and is roughly the same acreage as 2014, 2019 and 2020.
90.8 million acres were planted in 2020.
Planted acreage for 2021 is expected to be up or unchanged from 2020 in 24 of the 48 estimating states. Record high acreage is expected in Idaho and Oregon. Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin are all estimated to see acreage increase over 100,000 acres in 2021.
With an expected yield of 179.5 bushels per acre, 2021 corn production is estimated to be just over 15 billion bushels. That would be the second largest corn crop on record, second to 2016’s 15.1 billion bushels.
Despite the increase, the planting estimates were below general expectations. The expected stocks-to-use ratio is 9.3 percent. That implies a 34-day carryout, the tightest carryover for the corn industry since 2013.
At market close on Wednesday, May 2021 corn futures per the Chicago Board of Trade were limit up (+$0.25) to $5.64 per bushel.
Soybeans:
Growers intend to plant 87.6 million acres of soybeans in 2021, up five percent from the 83 million acres planted in 2020. Compared with last year, planted acreage intentions are up or unchanged in 23 out of 29 estimating states.
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin are all anticipating increases of at least 250,000 acres planted. If realized, the planted area in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Wisconsin will be the largest on record.
For context, 76.1 million acres were planted in 2019.
With an estimated yield of 50.8 bushels per acre, 2021 soybean production is estimated to be just over 4.4 billion bushels. That would be the third largest soybean crop ever.
Estimates suggest 2021/22 soybean carryout will be 26 million bushels, or a two day carryout. The expected stocks-to-use ratio would be 0.6 percent, the lowest ever.
At market close on Wednesday, May 2021 soybean futures per the Chicago Board of Trade were limit up (+$0.70) to $14.36 per bushel.
The report also gave an overview of weather patterns for the previous three months.
The full report can be found here.
