Rabobank’s RaboResearch this week released its Poultry Quarterly Q2 2021 report. The outlook for the global poultry industry is improving, the report said, but various factors present challenges for global trade in the near future.
“The outlook for the global poultry industry is gradually improving, but big differences remain between countries, and global poultry trade is still very competitive,” the report’s lead author and Rabobank’s Senior Analyst – Animal Protein Nan-Dirk Mulder said. “The industry is facing major challenges due to COVID-19-related market disruption, very high and volatile feed prices, avian influenza (AI) in the northern hemisphere, and volatility coming from a bumpy recovery in countries affected by African Swine Fever (ASF). Key for producers will be to have a very disciplined supply growth, a focus on cost reduction via procurement, production efficiency, and feed formulation, as well as being prepared for big swings in demand driven by COVID-19-related government decisions.”
Some highlights from the report include:
The best performing industries are the US, Mexico, Japan, and Russia, while the EU, South Africa, and Thailand are still suffering from oversupply.
AI has impacted production in Russia, East Asia, and Europe. It has also disrupted trade flows of hatching eggs, DOCs, and poultry from Europe. ASF recovery could lead to an oversupply of poultry in China and Vietnam.
Feed prices are expected to stay high due to a combination of strong Asian demand for feed grains, La Nina’s impact on production, and market speculation. This will keep feed prices high and volatile.
Global trade is still highly competitive, with trade levels still down (-4%) and low prices. This market will recover slowly due to its high dependence on foodservice and the still high stock levels in import markets.
A summary of the report can be found here.
