USDA’s most recent Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report showed 2020 broiler production was up year over year, partly due to an extra slaughter day as well as higher bird weights. The first-quarter production forecast was increased on recent hatchery data, while the second-half production forecast was decreased on the probability that higher feed costs will dampen production expectations. The 2020 broiler export volumes were up year-over-year, largely due to strong demand from China; the 2021 export forecast is unchanged. 2021 broiler price forecast was increased on expectations for improving demand as well as tighter supplies.
As seen in the figure below, the first quarter had strong gains across all three measures—production increased by 6.5 percent (adjusted for slaughter days), slaughter by 4.2 percent, and average weights by 2.2—which bolstered the rest of the year. Production and slaughter were down year over year for the second, third, and fourth quarters, in large part due to COVID-19-related market disruptions. Conversely, average live weights were up throughout the year. Preliminary slaughter data from the Agricultural Marketing Service indicate that the gain in average weights was driven by slightly heavier birds in the large-bird category (birds weighing more than 6.26 pounds), as well as an increase in the proportion of large-bird slaughter, the driving factor in higher bird weights in recent years.
The full Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report can be found here.
