COVID-19-related shelter-in-place restrictions caused consumers to purchase a larger share of foods from grocery stores instead of commercial eating places, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).
A previous ERS study reported that shares of commodities acquired for food consumption at home (FAH) and food consumption away from home (FAFH) varied greatly, with the 2007-08 FAH shares ranging from 93 percent for bananas and 80 percent for dairy products to 54 percent for chicken. ERS has recently updated FAH and FAFH shares of commodity consumption in a working paper in order to gauge the potential impacts of the shelter-in-place restrictions on agricultural commodity growers and marketers.
Using data from 2 national food intake surveys conducted between 2013 and 2016, ERS researchers separated 63 agricultural commodities into 9 major food source groups (fruit, vegetables, dairy, meats, eggs, grains, fat and oils, caloric sweeteners, and nuts). ERS researchers then broke down the data into FAH and FAFH, which was further categorized by restaurants, fast food, school, and other FAFH. Food source is defined primarily by where consumers acquire the food rather than where they eat it. Foods obtained at grocery stores are classified as FAH, although consumers can eat it away from home, such as at an office or in a school cafeteria. Foods prepared away from home are classified as FAFH, although they can be picked up as takeout or delivered to the consumer’s home.
During 2013-16, FAH shares varied among the 9 major commodity groups, ranging from a low of 62 percent for meat, poultry, and fish to 89 percent for nuts, with other commodity groups between these ranges. Commodity shares within a major commodity group also varied. For example, within the meat, poultry, and fish group, 53 percent of chicken and 61 percent of beef was consumed at home; meanwhile consumers purchased 73 percent of pork for FAH consumption during 2013-16.
Shelter-in-place restrictions may adversely affect full-service restaurants more than fast food places since full-service restaurants may not have previously relied on take-out or delivery options. When eating out, Americans favored certain commodities more from fast food places than from full-service restaurants, such as potatoes, chicken, and cheese (see figure in the summary). Therefore, shelter-in place restrictions that limited dine-in services could have differing impacts on various commodities. On the FAH sector, the COVID-19-induced increase in grocery spending would be allocated among food commodities according to economic determinants (i.e., expenditure and price elasticities) and behavioral changes (stockpiling, online shopping, purchasing close substitutes for restaurant food, etc.).
The full report can be found here.
