Foodservice demand in the U.S. may not recover to levels seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic until the second half of 2022, according to CoBank lead animal protein economist Will Sawyer.
In a report published in CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division, Sawyer said 2020 was the most volatile, challenging year in U.S. animal protein history. As demand historically shifted away from foodservice establishments and toward eating at home, U.S. food consumption “reverted to a level of at home food consumption not seen since the early 1980s, and with that, the greatest and most rapid shift in meat and food supplies the industry has ever seen,” according to Sawyer.
“As U.S. animal protein consumption slowly returns to normal, the food service section will still lag. That means a challenging outlook for food service-focused animal proteins including high-value beef cuts, poultry produced for foodservice specs, and labor-intensive processed meat products that are in short supply.”
Despite the demand shift toward retail sales channels, Sawyer noted that some foodservice channels had rebounded from spring 2020 lows to actually achieve year-over-year sales growth. This was particularly prevalent in fast-casual and quick-service restaurants (QSR). Full service restaurants are still facing low demand for some time to come.
“As the U.S. foodservice sector climbs out of the hole left by 2020, the U.S. animal protein sector will need to realign itself with the survivors of last year,” the report concluded. “In many cases that includes the large, publicly traded, franchise and multi-location limited-service restaurants.”
The full report can be found here.
