USDA lowered its forecast for 2020 Q4 broiler production on October production data as well as recent hatchery data, while 2021 Q1 production was lowered on fewer birds available for slaughter, according to the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
The Q4 broiler export forecast was increased on record October volumes, and the 2021 export forecast was increased on expectations that broiler meat will remain attractive as an affordable protein. Fourth quarter broiler price forecast was increased on recent prices.
Broiler production for October came in lower than expected, estimated at 3.8 billion pounds, a year-over-year decrease of 6.1 percent, or 1.9 percent when adjusted for slaughter days. This decrease was comprised of a 7.2 percent year-over-year decrease in slaughter volumes (3.0 percent when adjusted for slaughter days), while average live weights increased by 1.1 percent year over year.
Preliminary slaughter data suggests that 2020 November production volumes will be similar to 2019, while hatchery data implies fewer birds available for slaughter in December. Based on lower-than-expected October production and lower slaughter expectations for December, the fourth-quarter production forecast was revised down to 11.025 billion pounds, a year-over-year decrease of 1 percent. 2020 production is forecast to total 44.56 billion pounds, an increase of over 1 percent year over year.
Egg sets and chick placements also imply reduced producer expectations in early 2021, which was the basis for decreasing the Q1 forecast to 10.94 billion pounds. 2021 production is forecast to be 45.045 billion pounds, an increase of 1 percent relative to the 2020 production forecast.
