Third-quarter broiler production forecast was increased on August data, and the 2021 forecast was increased to reflect the revision to 2020. The broiler export forecast was increased on expectations for improving global demand. Follow the link for USDA’s October Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
The fourth-quarter broiler price forecast was unchanged, while the 2021 price forecast was decreased on expectations for continued weak demand and abundant supplies. The table egg production forecast was unchanged, while the fourth-quarter price forecast was increased to reflect expectations for strong demand. The second-half export forecast was increased on expectations for continued firm overseas demand. The third-quarter turkey production forecast was adjusted up based on recent slaughter data. Turkey export forecasts were increased to 550 million pounds in 2020 and 570 million pounds in 2021. Turkey import forecasts were raised on August trade data. The average price for turkey in the third quarter was 111.3 cents per pound, and the fourth quarter forecast was increased to 112 cents. Forecast turkey prices for the first half of 2021 were also increased.
For August, broiler production estimate came in higher than expected at 3.7 billion pounds, a year-over-year increase of 1.7-percent when adjusted for slaughter days. This increase was comprised of a 1.3-percent rise in average live bird weights and a 0.5-percent rise in slaughter (adjusted for slaughter days). After months of dealing with production disruptions stemming from COVID-19, including reduced slaughter capacity in April, backlogs driving up May and June bird weights, and fewer birds available for slaughter in June and July due to reduced egg sets in the weeks prior, August production data may signal the return, or the beginning of one, to more normal operations (see chart). Preliminary September slaughter data points to continued gains in bird weights relative to last year, while slaughter is expected to be down slightly. Based on higher-than-expected production in August, the third-quarter production forecast was increased to 11.275 billion pounds. Production in 2020 is forecast to be 44.602 billion pounds, an increase of about 2-percent over 2019 production. Reflecting the increase in 2020, the 2021 production forecast was increased to 45.060 billion pounds, 1-percent above the 2020 production forecast.
