Third-quarter broiler production forecast was decreased on hatchery data, while the 2021 forecast was lowered on higher expected feed costs. The broiler export forecast is unchanged. The second-half broiler price forecast was increased on recent prices, while the 2021 price forecast was increased on expectations for tighter supplies, according to USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.
July broiler production is estimated at 3.7 billion pounds, a decrease of 3.5 percent year over year. This decrease was comprised of a 3.6-percent decrease in slaughter and a slight uptick in average live weights. Preliminary weekly slaughter data for August points to a year-over-year decrease in slaughter and an increase in average live weights.
Further, hatchery data imply that birds available for marketing in September will be fewer year over year (see charts). Based on expectations for lower slaughter, the third-quarter production forecast was revised down to 11.225 billion pounds. Production in 2020 is forecast to be 44.552 billion pounds, an increase of about 1 percent relative to 2019. In 2021, higher feed costs for both corn and soybean meal are expected to pressure industry margins and dampen production growth, which was the basis for decreasing the 2021 production forecast to 45.020 billion pounds, an increase of about 1 percent relative to the 2020 production forecast.
