Broiler production in May came in higher than expected at 3.6 billion pounds, a year-over-year increase of 2.2-percent (adjusted for slaughter days). This increase was driven by average live-bird weights, which reached a record 6.45 pounds (2.0-percent higher year over year), while slaughter increased by 0.2-percent (adjusted for slaughter days), according to USDA’s July Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
Preliminary weekly slaughter data imply that the increase in May bird weights was driven by higher weights in both the small (6.25 pounds and below) and large bird (6.26 pounds and above) weight categories, as well as an increase in the proportion of large-bird production. It is possible that the increase in bird weights reflected the disruptions in the processing sector. The year-over-year increase in slaughter—although slight—points to the ability of the broiler industry to recover quickly. Based on higher-than-expected May production, the second-quarter production forecast was increased to 10.900 billion pounds.
The production forecast for 2021 was increased to 45.175 billion pounds to echo the increase in the 2020 production forecast; however, year-on-year growth expectations were slowed to 1-percent based on May domestic pullet placements. Pullet placements have been consistently higher year over year since September 2019, but May data reflects a 6.6-percent decrease, suggesting that producers may intend to reduce or slow the rate of expansion of the broiler breeder flock going into 2021.
