The 2019 total poultry and red meat production estimate is reduced from last month as lower pork and turkey production more than offset higher beef production. The beef production estimate is raised on the pace of late-year slaughter. The pork production estimate is reduced on the slower pace of slaughter in late 2019. The broiler production estimate is unchanged from the previous month, but the turkey production estimate is lowered or recent production data. The egg production estimate is raised on late-2019 production data.
For 2020 total red meat and poultry production forecast is increased fractionally from last month as higher broiler production more than offsets lower expected beef, pork, and turkey production. The 2020 beef production forecast is reduced on lighter expected carcass weights. However, quarterly beef production was increased in the first half of the year and reduced in the second half of the year due to higher-than-expected cattle placements in late 2019 and a reduced placement forecast for early 2020, according to USDA latest WASDE report.
The 2019 broiler export forecast is raised on recent trade data, but no change is made for the 2020 export forecast. The beef import forecast is increased for 2019 on recent trade data. No change is made to the 2020 import forecast. The 2019 beef export forecast is reduced to reflect a slower export pace late in the year, but no change is made to the 2020 beef export forecast. The pork export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged from the previous month.
Livestock and poultry price estimates for 2019 are adjusted to reflect December price data. For 2020, the first-quarter cattle price is raised, reflecting current early-year price strength. First-half hog price forecasts are reduced on current prices and increased production. Broiler prices are lowered as higher forecast production weighs on markets. Turkey price forecasts for 2020 are raised on lower production and continued demand recovery.
