The forecast for 2019 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month on the current pace of beef, pork, and broiler production. Egg production is raised on higher table and hatching egg production.
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry forecast is increased from last month as higher broiler production more than offsets a lower beef production forecast. Recent hatchery data, lower feed costs, and expected gains in exports will likely support a more rapid pace of expansion during the year. Beef production is reduced on slightly slower pace of both fed and non-fed cattle slaughter in the first half of the year. The pork and turkey production forecasts are unchanged. The 2020 egg production forecast is raised from the previous month, according to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Beef imports for 2019 and 2020 are raised from last month on trade data to date and expectations that demand for processing-grade beef will remain strong. Exports for 2020 are lowered to reflect a slightly weaker pace of sales; the forecast for 2020 is unchanged. Pork export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are lowered to reflect slower-than-previously expected growth in exports to several markets although the recent trade agreement with Japan is expected to mitigate the decline in total exports. The 2019 broiler export forecast is unchanged from last month, but turkey exports are increased slightly. Broiler and turkey export forecasts for 2020 are increased on the recent announcement by China that it is reopening its market to U.S. poultry meat.
The 2019 broiler price forecast is unchanged from last month, but increased production in 2020 is expected to pressure prices. The 2019 turkey price is raised, but the 2020 price forecast is unchanged. The egg price forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are increased on recent price strength.
