The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecasts for 2019 total red meat and poultry production from last month based on higher beef, pork, broiler and turkey production.
The agency’s Economic Research Service (ERS) also reported that for 2020, the forecast for total red meat and poultry increased since last month due to higher broiler and turkey production that offset lower beef production estimates.
The updated forecasts were published Nov. 8 in the ERS’ monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
Poultry
Hatchery data points to larger supplies of birds available for slaughter in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the WASDE report, which resulted in a raised broiler production forecast. The turkey production forecast also is raised on higher-than-expected third-quarter production and higher expected supplies of birds in the fourth quarter.
USDA raised the 2020 forecast for broiler and turkey production based on an increase in production late this year, which is estimated to carry into late next year.
Although the 2019 broiler price forecast is raised from the previous month based on current prices and price strength is expected to continue into early 2020, increased production in the later part of 2020 is expected to pressure prices. The 2019 and 2020 turkey price forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Beef
USDA reported that the beef production forecast was raised from the October 2019 estimate due to higher expected slaughter of both fed and non-fed cattle.
For 2020, however, USDA reduced its beef production forecast due to a slower-than-expected pace of gains in carcass weights. A slightly slower pace of feedlot marketings also contributed to the reduced production forecast, the agency reported.
USDA noted that the cattle price forecast is raised for fourth-quarter 2019 based on recent data but that the 2020 forecast for cattle price remained unchanged.
Pork
The 2019 pork production forecast is raised based on both higher hog slaughter and slightly higher carcass weights, but remains unchanged for 2020.
The 2019 and 2020 hog price forecasts are reduced based on current price weakness.
Read the full report here.
