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Broiler Production and Ending Stock Forecasts Revised Up - Washington Report

Expected third-quarter broiler production was increased on higher than expected September slaughter volumes, and the fourth quarter forecast was raised on hatchery data.

For 2020, the production forecast was raised on recent broiler-type pullet chick placement data. Both the 2019 and 2020 ending stock forecasts were revised up on the latest cold storage report and the anticipated increase in production. The third-quarter price forecast was increased on recent price trends, while the 2020 price forecast was revised down on expectations that increased supply will put downward pressure on prices.

The third-quarter broiler export forecast was decreased on lower-than-expected demand.

The second half table egg production forecast was increased on higher-than-expected lay rates for the remainder of the year, and the 2020 table egg production forecast was also increased. The expected increase in broiler production was the basis for increasing the 2020 hatching egg forecast. Egg stocks were increased based expectations for increased production, as well as on accumulating dried egg inventories. The egg import forecast was revised down on low import volumes.

The third quarter turkey production forecast was decreased on recent data, while turkey stocks were lowered based on tighter supplies. The fourth-quarter turkey price forecast was increased slightly on recent price trends, and the export forecast was increased on expectations for higher demand.

The whole bird (National Composite) wholesale price averaged 76.92 cents per pound in September. Despite the average price for the month being 7.5 percent lower year over year, prices trended up in September, starting the month at 76.08 cents per pound and ending at 78.48 cents (a 3-percent increase). This increase suggests that fourth-quarter prices will likely be better than previously expected, which was the basis for increasing the fourth-quarter price forecast to 77 cents per pound. Conversely, in 2020, it is anticipated that the expected increase in production will put downward pressure on prices; thus, the 2020 price forecast was lowered to 91 cents per pound. USDA’s full Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report can be viewed by clicking the link.