The forecast for 2019 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, as higher broiler production more than offsets slightly lower beef and turkey production. Pork production is unchanged. Hatchery and slaughter data supports an increase in broiler production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month on a slower-than-expected pace of fed cattle slaughter. The turkey forecast is lowered on a slower pace of third-quarter production. The 2019 egg production forecast is raised slightly according to USDA’s October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month on higher expected pork and broiler production. Beef production is unchanged for the year, although a slower pace of placements in third-quarter 2019 is expected to result in lower first-quarter beef production, but higher second quarter production. Pork production is forecast higher, as expected growth in pigs per litter points toward increased availability of slaughter hogs in 2020. The broiler production forecast is raised from the previous month on expectations of continued expansion of broiler flocks. Turkey production forecasts are reduced from the previous month on higher feed prices. The egg production forecast is raised, largely reflecting increased hatching egg production.
The 2019 beef import forecast is unchanged, but exports are reduced, reflecting recent trade data. For 2020, imports are reduced, reflecting tighter supplies from Oceania and strong demand for beef by competing importers. Exports are raised on firm global demand and tightness in supplies from Oceania. The 2019 and 2020 pork export forecasts are raised from the previous month on recent trade data and strong demand U.S. pork products. The 2019 broiler export forecast is lowered, reflecting recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2020 export forecast. Turkey trade export forecasts are raised.
The cattle price forecast for 2019 is raised on current price strength; this increase in price strength was carried into early 2020. Hog price forecasts are reduced for 2019 and 2020 on larger supplies of hogs. The 2019 broiler price forecast is raised on recent price strength but is reduced for 2020 as broiler meat supplies are raised. The 2019 turkey price forecast is higher on recent gains in prices, but the 2020 forecast is unchanged. The 2019 egg price forecast is lowered on current prices, but 2020 egg price forecasts are unchanged.
