The forecast for 2019 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as reduced beef, pork, and turkey production forecasts more than offset higher broiler production.
The broiler production forecast is raised on recent production data and continued growth in average bird weights for the remainder of the year. The 2019 egg production forecast is raised slightly on hatchery flock data. Beef production is reduced from the previous month primarily on slower expected pace of fed cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights in the fourth quarter. The pork production forecast is reduced on the current rate of slaughter in the third quarter and slightly lighter carcass weights. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on September 27 and provide information on producer farrowing intentions into early 2020. The turkey forecast is reduced on lower expected third- and fourth quarter production.
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month on higher expected beef and broiler production. Beef production is raised from last month as higher expected first-half 2020 marketings support higher fed cattle slaughter in 2020. First-half carcass weights are also expected to support increased beef production.
The broiler production forecast is raised from the previous month on expectations of a higher proportion of heavy bird weights. Pork, turkey, and egg production forecasts are unchanged from the previous month.
Beef import and export forecasts for 2019 are reduced, reflecting recent trade data; however, no changes are made to the forecasts for 2020. The 2019 and 2020 pork export forecasts are raised from the previous month on recent trade data and expectations of continued strong global demand for U.S. pork products. The 2019 broiler export forecast is adjusted higher reflecting recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2020 export forecast. No changes are made to the 2019 and 2020 turkey trade forecasts.
The 2019 broiler price forecast is raised on recent price strength, but no change is made to 2020 price forecasts. Turkey price forecasts are unchanged for both 2019 and 2020. The 2019 and 2020 egg price forecasts are raised from last month on strong demand that is expected to carry into the next year. Read USDA’s latest WASDE report by clicking the link.
