Pork production and swine herd replacement will take at least five years to recover in the countries most heavily affected by African Swine Fever (ASF), a Rabobank report said.

The report, entitled “African Swine Fever: A Global Update,” projected production losses of 25 percent in China in 2019 and losses of 15 to 20 percent in Vietnam.

“The scope of the ASF epidemic is now clearer – this will be a multi-year and multi-region issue that brings structural change to global animal protein,” the report said. “It remains our view that it will take years – at least five years – for herds to be rebuilt and for production to recover in the worst-affected countries.

The report also noted that ASF impacts have varied from region to region. Losses are most severe in north and northeast China due to lack of experience, a slow initial reaction, and weak biosecurity. Large-scale culling of affected herds and panic liquidation in southern China “jointly contributed to a sharp decline” in that region.

“Due to the large liquidation in 1H 2019, pork production decline is slower than herd loss. We expect a 25 percent drop in pork meat output for 2019. Given the declining sow herd, pig supply in 2020 will be lower than 2019. We expect a further 10 to 15 percent drop in pork production in 2020.”