The 2019 forecast for red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month as lower forecast beef, pork, and turkey production more than offset higher broiler production. The decline in beef production largely reflects lower steer and heifer slaughter in the second half of the year. Forecast pork production is reduced from last monthy as the pace of slaughter to date has been slower than expected. The broiler production forecast is raised on recent hatchery data and expected heavier bird weights. Turkey production is lowered slightly on production data to date, according to USDA’s June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The 2020 red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from the previous month. Production growth for livestock and poultry is expected to be slower as producers respond to higher feed costs. The beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter as incentives to add weight on pasture slows the pace of feedlot placements.

The beef import forecast is raised for 2019 on recent trade data, but the export forecast is reduced from the previous month on the current pace of beef exports to a number of trading partners. No change is made to the 2020 beef trade forecasts. Pork export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are raised from the previous month, largely reflecting the removal of Mexico’s tariffs on U.S. pork products in late May. The 2019 broiler export forecast is reduced slightly on recent trade data; no change is made to the 2020 broiler export forecast. The turkey export forecast is unchanged for 2019 and 2020.