Total U.S. poultry and red meat production for 2020 is forecast above 2019, according to USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Broiler production is expected to surpass 2019 levels as the industry responds to increased expansion of processing capacity late in 2019 and favorable feed prices.
Beef production is forecast higher primarily on higher projected steer and heifer slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Pork production in 2020 is forecast to increase as producers in late 2019 and into 2020 continue to expand hog supplies. Hog carcass weights are also forecast higher in 2020 as feed prices are forecast lower.
Turkey production is forecast to increase as producers respond to lower feed prices and a continued gradual recovery in prices. Egg production is forecast to increase modestly as margins improve with lower feed prices and higher egg prices during 2020, based on .
The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2019 is little changed from last month. Small reductions are made to beef and pork, largely due to offsetting changes in slaughter and carcass weights.
Broiler production is lowered on hatchery and slaughter data to date, but the turkey forecast is raised on recent hatchery data. Egg production for 2019 is raised on continued expansion of the laying flock. For 2020, tightness in competitor beef supplies and firm global demand are expected to support stronger U.S. beef exports relative to 2019. Pork exports are forecast to increase next year on stronger global demand for U.S. pork. Both beef and pork imports are projected to decline year over year.
Broiler and turkey exports are forecast higher on expected gains in foreign demand. These forecasts assume current trade policies remain in place.
The 2019 beef export forecast is reduced from last month on slower-than-anticipated exports to key trading partners. The pork export forecast is raised as higher expected sales of pork in the second half of the year are expected to more than offset the slower-than-expected pace of exports to date. Small changes are made to beef and pork import forecasts reflecting first-quarter trade data; however, forecasts for the remainder of the year are unchanged. The broiler export forecast is reduced on lower-than-expected shipments in the first quarter. The turkey export forecast is virtually unchanged from the previous month.
The 2019 cattle price forecast is lowered from the previous month on recent price weakness. However, the hog price forecast is raised each quarter on stronger prices to date and expected price support from global pork demand in the second half of the year. Broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts are all reduced from the previous month on weaker demand expectations for the remainder of the year.
