The Trump administration is expected to release the text of its trade agreement with Mexico as early as today, launching a contentious congressional approval process as it tries to coax Canada into a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
U.S. lawmakers, who were briefed by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer yesterday, said they expect the trade agreement to largely exclude language related to Canada, but were still hopeful that Canada might join. Lawmakers expressed little optimism that a deal with Canada could be reached quickly because of disagreements over dairy and dispute settlement provisions. Some Democrats indicated that they could not support a NAFTA deal without Canada.
The U.S.-Mexico text needs to be published by Sunday night, 60 days ahead of a November 30 deadline for President Trump and Mexico’s president Enrique Pena Nieto to sign the deal before a new Mexican president takes office on December 1.
The text will flesh out an agreement in principle reached by the United States and Mexico on August 27 that is meant to rebalance automotive trade between the two countries and modernize the nearly 25-year-old NAFTA with new chapters on digital trade and stronger labor and environmental standards.
The publishing of the text starts a months-long process for congressional approval that will require a lengthy study by the independent U.S. International Trade Commission and a series of notification periods before an up-or-down vote can occur.
Lighthizer told lawmakers that the earliest that a vote could occur, either on a U.S.-Mexico deal or a trilateral deal including Canada, would be February or March 2019, after the Congress elected in November is sworn into office.
