The forecast for total meat production in 2018 is reduced from last month on decreases in commercial pork and turkey production, according to USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The report is available here.

The second-quarter broiler production estimate is raised slightly, reflecting revised hatchery data but no change is made to outlying forecasts. Second-half turkey production is lowered on recent production data. For 2019, beef, pork, broiler, and egg production forecasts are unchanged; only a small increase is made to turkey production.

The annual beef production forecast is unchanged as increases in second-half cattle slaughter are offset by lighter expected carcass weights, The 2018 pork production forecast is reduced on the current pace of slaughter and slightly lighter expected carcass weights in the third quarter. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 27, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2019.

Broiler, turkey, and egg export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged. The third-quarter fed steer price forecast is raised from last month on current price strength, but the fourth-quarter forecast is reduced as the pace of marketings is raised.

Broiler prices are reduced from last month for 2018 and 2019 on strong competition with other meats. The annual turkey price forecast is reduced for 2018 as slightly higher third-quarter turkey prices are more than offset by expected lower prices in the fourth quarter; the 2019 forecast is reduced. The third-quarter egg price forecast for 2018 is reduced on recent prices, but no change is made to the outlying forecasts.

Hog price forecasts for 2018 are lowered on current prices and pressure from expected abundant meat supplies. For 2019, the first-quarter hog price forecast is reduced slightly, but the annual price forecast range is unchanged.