Brazil’s chicken meat production is forecast to increase by 2.3 percent in 2019 to nearly 13.9 million metric tons, mostly driven by a rebound in exports and higher domestic demand. The outlook for production factors calls for stable feed costs due to higher availability of soybean, and to a lesser extent corn, and improving producer markets.
The outlook for GDP growth in Brazil is 2.5 percent and inflation is expected to remain under control, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. The USDA report is available here GAIN .
The forecast for Brazilian chicken meat production in 2019 is nearly 13.9 million metric tons, mostly driven by a rebound in exports due to firm world demand for chicken meat and higher domestic demand due to the projected growth of the Brazilian economy next year. In addition, feed costs should remain stable next year due to a record soybean crop and larger availability of corn. The number of chicks placed in meat-growing operations has trended above average in the past months reflecting producers’ confidence. Average live weight of birds continues to grow due to improved genetics.
Chicken meat production is highly concentrated in the three southern states of Brazil with 65 percent of total chicken production. These states contain a large number of packers who also produce pork and are responsible for the technological package provided to producers and large-scale distribution of major inputs. The production system is highly integrated.
In another GAIN report from Japan, Japanese chicken meat production is estimated to grow two percent to 1.695 million metric tons in 2018. The industry continues to consolidate as smaller operations exit the industry and flocks are subsumed by larger operations.
Average yield weights have increased over the past ten years as remaining producers demonstrate improved productivity. Strong foodservice demand, particularly for recently introduced prepared chicken products, is expected to drive consumption upward to 2.765 million metric tons.
Imports are projected to grow to 1.080 million metric tons as Thailand continues to strengthen its position in the market after overtaking Brazil as the largest poultry supplier to Japan in 2017. Consumption is forecast to slow somewhat as the trendiness of new products begins to wear off, but demand will remain strong as consumers continue to switch from fish to more affordable proteins.
Also in another GAIN report from Canada, Canadian chicken meat production in 2019 is forecast to rise 3 percent to 1.33 million metric tons on strong demand for broiler meat and continued relative price competitiveness across retail and food service sectors. In Canada, the chicken meat market is driven by broiler meat production, representing roughly 98 percent of the market. The balance is comprised of other chicken meat, mostly spent fowl.
Under Canada’s supply management system, poultry farmers are not vertically integrated into the processing and further processing industries. A large number of independent chicken farmers, often relatively small family operations, supply live birds to processing companies. Production is tightly controlled through a quota system.
