The forecast for 2018 total meat production is lowered from last month, but production forecasts are unchanged for 2019.
Broiler production for 2018 is raised on the pace of second-quarter production data and stronger growth in production during the second half of the year. Turkey production in the second quarter of 2018 is raised on the current pace of slaughter; no changes are made to outlying quarters. Egg production for 2018 is raised on recent hatchery data.
The 2018 broiler trade forecast is unchanged from the previous month. No changes are made to 2019 beef and poultry trade forecasts.
Beef production for 2018 is lowered primarily as lighter carcass weights more than offset higher second-quarter steer and heifer and cow slaughter. Pork production for 2018 is lowered on the current pace of second-quarter slaughter and lower-expected commercial slaughter in the third quarter. Slightly heavier expected hog carcass weights in the second and third quarters partially offset declines in slaughter. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released June 28th and will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of 2018.
Turkey prices are increased fractionally for 2018, reflecting a higher second-quarter forecast. Egg prices for 2018 are lowered on recent price data. For 2019, hog prices are lowered on weaker expected demand, but no changes are made to cattle, poultry, and egg price forecasts for 2019.
Click the link to read USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
