Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2019 is forecast above 2018. Beef production is forecast above 2018 on higher slaughter and heavier carcass weights.
Broiler production is expected to surpass 2018 as the industry responds to favorable broiler prices. Turkey production is forecast to slowly increase as prices move above year-earlier levels beginning in late 2018. Egg production is forecast higher as the sector continues to respond to favorable prices during much of 2018 according to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2018 is lowered from last month. Cattle slaughter in the second quarter has been slower than anticipated, and the pace of marketings in the second half of the year is slowed. However, carcass weights are increased for second half of the year, partly offsetting the reduction in the slaughter forecast. Broiler production is adjusted for March slaughter data, the forecast is unchanged.
Larger beef supplies for 2019 and firm global demand are expected to support stronger U.S. beef exports relative to 2018. Pork exports are forecast to increase next year as expanding supplies and competitive prices support demand for U.S. pork. Beef and pork imports are forecast higher in 2019. Broiler exports are forecast higher on expected continued gains in foreign demand.
Changes to the 2018 red meat and poultry exports reflect March trade data, with no change to the outlying forecast. No change is made to the forecasts for beef imports for the outlying quarters, but pork imports are raised from the previous month on the current pace of trade.
