December’s production was 3.3 billion pounds, 4 percent above December 2015 on a per day basis. Preliminary data indicated January production was 2 percent above January 2016, while the placement of chicks for grow-out was also higher. These recent developments, as well as the recent resumption of growth in average weights, contributed to increased expectations for first-quarter production. The forecast was raised 50 million pounds above the previous first-quarter forecast.
Broiler weights at slaughter through December indicated the third month of year-over-year increases since September and August, when weights were below the previous year. Slaughter numbers for 2016 suggest that birds grown to the largest size category (above 7.75 pounds) have decreased relative to the production of birds sized 6.26–7.75 pounds. This developed in the second half of 2016 and contrasted with the previous 2 years’ patterns. The later 2016 trend may have resulted from efforts to resolve quality concerns associated with a breast muscle myopathy (“wooden breast”), a condition that may impact large birds to a greater extent than others. To the extent producers limit production of birds at very heavy weights, increases in average bird weights during 2017 may be affected.
