President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton Tuesday night has far-reaching consequences for the make up of the Supreme Court. Democratic hopes for a liberal majority on the Supreme Court, as well as Judge Merrick Garland’s ill-fated nomination, have now been dashed. Garland, chief judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, was a moderate liberal.
Trump’s victory means that at some point next year, the nine members of the Supreme Court will be restored to full capacity with a majority of Republican-appointed justices, following the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, who passed away in February. And, any Democractic attempts to filibuster President Trump’s choice would likely lead Republicans to end that option for Supreme Court justices, just as Democrats did for other judicial nominations when the Democrats controlled the Senate.
How far President Trump’s impacts the court’s membership depends on whether he will have other opportunities to choose a new justice beyond Scalia. Current court liberals include Justices Ruth Bader Ginsberg, who is 83, and Stephen G. Breyer, who is 73.
Ginsberg has said she will serve on the court as long as she is up to the job. Kennedy has given no indication about how long he intends to remain on the court.
Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, a moderate conservative, is 80 and is the court’s longest-serving justice. He is the court’s pivotal justice and is the member of the current court most likely to be in the majority when the court splits 5 to 4 in the court’s most controversial decisions. Usually, Kennedy sides with Chief Justice John C. Roberts, Jr. and the two other conservatives Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito, Jr. However on some social issues, Kennedy sides with the liberals–Ginsburg, Breyer, and Sotomayor and Kagan.
Trump has said he will draw his Supreme Court nominee from a list of 20 judges and one senator–Mike Lee of Utah. All those on the list appear more conservative than Kennedy. This list of potential judges was put together with the help of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank and the Federalist Society. His nominee will be like Scalia in seeking to overturn Roe v. Wade and be a strong supporter of the Second Amendment, Trump has previously said.
President Trump’s win will likely change the courts docket as well. Court challenges to President Obama’s regulations regarding the Affordable Care Act and immigration will most likely disappear under President Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress.
