U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman told CNBC this week in an interview that the Trans Pacific Partnership will have enough votes for ratification by Congress after the election. “If the House and Senate leaders bring TPP forward, I think we can get the votes there,” Froman said. “This trade agreement eliminated 18,000 taxed on our export,” he said.
Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton both oppose TPP, which has been a signature economic objective of President Obama. Republicans on Capitol Hill, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, initially supported the trade pact. However, that support has cooled substantially since the presidential campaign began.
“If the United States does not set the rules for global trade and be sure we have a level playing field to compete, China will,” Froman warned. China “will move ahead and get access to these markets at our expense and our market share is actually going to decline in some of the fast-growing, large markets,”
Froman told CNBC that TPP has key industries on its side. “We’ve got the widest, broadest support across the economy. The technology companies, manufactures, service companies, and the agricultural sector.” He added that the textile industry, for the first time in its history, is supporting at trade agreement.
Meanwhile, longtime trade watchers, Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former Undersecretary of Commerce Grant Aldonas, were both bleak about prospects for TPP in the lame-duck session, Politico reported.
Clinton has made clear she is firmly opposed to the pact and “I don’t think she’s going to give a pass to Obama to do it,” Hufbauer said. Aldonas said he did not believe the White House’s legislative affairs office was up to the task of corralling lawmakers to vote for the agreement, especially after the current election.
However, Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution, said he believes it is “premature” to say TPP won’t happen. There are ample votes to approve it in the Senate, so “the key question is whether House Speaker Paul Ryan will bring it to a vote,” Meltzer said. There are a couple of reasons Ryan might want to do that, including as a repudiation of Trump’s attempt to recast the party as a foe of trade agreements.
