This month’s 2016-2017 U.S. corn outlook from USDA is for lower production, increased exports, reduced stocks, and higher prices, according to the October 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report available here.
Corn production is forecast at 15.057 billion bushels, down 36 million from last month as a lower forecast yield more than offsets an increase in harvested area. Corn supplies for 2016-2017 are down slightly to 16.845 billion bushels, as a lower crop more than offsets a small increase in beginning stocks based on the September 30 Grains Stocks report.
Exports are raised 50 million bushels, reflecting current U.S. export commitments that are well above a year ago. Corn ending stocks are down 63 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by produces is raised 5 cents on both ends to $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel.
Soybean product in is forecast at 4,269 million bushels, up 68 million mainly on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at 51.4 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushels from the September forecast. Soybean supplies for 2016-17 are projected 70 million bushes above last month with slightly higher beginning stocks adding to higher product. The soybean price is projected at $8.30 to $9.80 per bushel unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and soybean oil price projections are also unchanged at $300 to $340 per short ton and 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound, respectively.
