Vietnam’s government has opted to delay ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). A government official told Reuters on Friday that Hanoi would not include ratifying TPP on the agenda for its next parliament session, which begins on October 20. This means that the earliest the Vietnamese National Assembly could approve TPP is now early in 2017.
Vietnam is predicted to be one of the biggest winners from TPP, which would eliminate an estimated 18,000 tariffs among the participating countries. For an export dependent, low-wage economy like Vietnam, this would meant an 11-percent boost to its gross domestic product or $36 billion by 2025, according to the Eurasia Group. In addition, TPP has been overwhelmingly well received in Vietnam with a survey by Pew showing that only 2 percent of Vietnamese believed that TPP would be a negative for Vietnam.
TPP had been pushed through by former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, whose government signed TPP in February 2016. Dung’s successor, Nguyen Xuan Phue has been assertive on trade liberalization and announced recently that TPP would be in front of Vietnamese lawmakers for ratification in October.
The U.S. presidential election is thought to be a factor in Vietnam’s decision to delay the vote. With Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton both staunchly opposing TPP, the conviction of TPP nations appears now to be uncertain as to the prospects for the trade deal. In addition, the trade pact had been heralded in Vietnam as a way to challenge its reliance on China. However, the Vietnam government may now be of the mind that it is too soon to publicly undermine its ties to its biggest neighbor.
