Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders are all openly hostile to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but supporters of TPP believe such toxicity might actually work in their favor. Whoever succeeds President Obama will certainly abandon TPP, which gives new impetus for advocates to maneuver toward a vote before 2017 and keeping hope alive in the Obama Administration, Republican lawmakers who support TPP, and in agriculture and pro-trade groups.
“Right now you have a president, a majority leader, and a speaker who are all pro-trade,” said U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman. “There is a pathway forward here,” Froman said “And what we’re trying to do right now in just maximize the likelihood that we’ll be able to walk down that path successfully.” Froman has been meeting for months with lawmakers to address their concerns about TPP and with trade ministers from other nations covered by TPP.
TPP would have to come into focus well before November because it supporters would most likely need to begin congressional hearings in September to clear the path for a vote in the lame-duck session of Congress after the elections. Under the terms of trade legislation, Congress must hold public hearings on the agreement before it is voted on, and a lame-duck session would not provide enough time for committee action and House and Senate debates
However, the hostility toward trade agreements has been built over decades as manufacturing jobs shifted elsewhere and middle-income wages have stagnated. The politics of TPP have become even more toxic in the presidential race with Trump saying TPP “is the biggest betrayal in a long line of betrayals where politicians have sold out U.S. workers.” Those supporting TPP have long counted on action in a lame-duck session, but they failed to factor in that Trump would be the nominee. His election will likely doom TPP, by dissuading Republican leaders from advancing an issue that their party leader is so opposed to. However, some Republicans are not ruling out a vote because they maintain TPP deserved consideration or because Trump will not get elected.
Sanders, too, has expressed strong opposition to the trade deal. And, Hilary Clinton, who praised TPP as the “gold standard” during negotiations, has also now expressed her opposition to passing the trade pact, either before or after the election.
President Obama, during his recent trip to Vietnam, predicted that Congress would ratify TPP. A year ago, Congress narrowly voted to give the president trade promotion authority, which puts TPP on a fast track, ruling out amendments and requiring just 51 votes in the Senate, not 60. And, besides a new president next year, the Senate could have a new majority leader as well, Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY), if the Democrats were to win control. Senator Schumer would be unlikely to support TPP, which divides the pro-union Democratic party.
