USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report is available here. USDA’s forecast for broiler and turkey production has not changed from last month. The forecast of total poultry and red meat has been raised from last month as higher cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights have more than offset the lower forecast for pork production.
Growth in pigs per litter in the first quarter was slower than expected and producers expect to farrow fewer sows in March-May, according to the March 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report from USDA. Coupled with slower-than-expected first quarter slaughter, USDA’s forecast for pork production has been reduced.
Based on recent trade data, the broiler export forecast is unchanged from last month, but turkey exports are reduced on a slower pace of export recovery. The forecast for beef imports has been raised and exports reduced from last month. The strength of the U.S. dollar continues to make the United States an attractive market for imports and constrains exports. Pork imports are raised on the strength of the dollar, but improving demand in several importing countries in providing support for increased exports.
USDA made no change in the 2016 forecast for broiler and turkey prices. The cattle price forecast is reduced from last month on relatively weak demand and larger than expected fed cattle supplies. Hog prices are lowered on weaker demand.
