The 2015 soybean crop will be larger than projected a month ago by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the largest ever. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3,981 million bushels, up 93.6 million on higher yields, according the latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” report available here.
The soybean yield is forecast at 48.3 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels mainly on gains from Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota. The soybean harvest is 95 percent complete and supplies are projected up 2 percent from the October forecast. USDA also raised its forecast for soybean exports because of additional supplies.
Soybean and soybean meal prices for 2015-16 are reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $8.15 to $9.65 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $300 to $340 per short ton, down $10 on both ends.
Corn production will reach 13.654 billion bushels after USDA forecast an additional 99 million bushels from its month-ago forecast. The national average yield was raised 1.3 bushels per acre to 169.3 bushels, which is just 1.7 bushels below last year’s record crop of 14.2 billion bushels. USDA reported in a separate report on Monday that 93 percent of the crop has been harvested. USDA projected a season-average corn price 15 cents lower at $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel. USDA also pegged the U.S corn-to-use ratio at 12.9 percent, up from 11.3 percent last month.
The larger corn supplies is partly because of a 75-million-bushel reduction in expected corn use for ethanol as refiners switch to sorghum. U.S. sorghum exports for 2015-16 are projected to be 105 million bushels lower. Declining premiums for sorghum offered by exporters and large price discounts for sorghum relative to corn in interior cash markets drive exceptions for higher use in ethanol production and higher feed and residual use.
U.S. corn export sales and shipments lag well behind last year at this time and U.S. supplies remain uncompetitive in many foreign markets as corn from Brazil continues to undercut U.S. offerings.
