Doane’s has released its 2015 Planting Intentions Survey and results from this year’s survey show a continuation of recent trends toward more soybeans and less corn acreage. Last year’s corn acreage declined significantly in 2014, down 4.8 million acres from the 2013 level, just a bit more than the 4.5 million acre decline implied by Doane’s 2014 survey results and more accurate than USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report last year, which showed only a 3.7-million-acre decline.
The 2015 results show another big decline in corn acreage in the works for this year to 87 million acres, which is the lowest level since 2009. While traders are expecting a slight drop in 2015 based on USDA’s preliminary estimate of 89 million acres at its February Outlook Forum, the Doane survey would most likely prove bullish if confirmed by USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report.
Soybean acreage, on the other hand, will rise sharply according to Doane survey results, which imply national acreage of a record 87 million acres, with the largest increases percentage-wise for the Northern Plains states. The Doane survey results imply a significant increase in sorghum acreage this year.
While some forecasts show significant year-over-year declines in total crop acreage planted to the principle crops for 2015, Doane results suggest otherwise. Expected declines for corn, cotton, and winter wheat acreage will be offset with more acres of sorghum, barley, durum wheat, soybeans, sunflower, canola, and hay.
For more information regarding the results below, please contact Doane Operations Manager Dan Manternach at (314) 372-3519 or Chief Economist Rich Pottorff at (507) 529-7547.
| 2014 actual planted acres (USDA) mil acres | 2015 USDA outlook forum forecasts mil acres | 2015 Doane survey (implied) mil acres | USDA Outlook implied % change 15vs14 | Doane survey implied % change 15vs14 | |
| ALL FEEDGRAINS | 103.433 | 103.000 | 101.079 | -0.400 | -2.300 |
| Corn | 90.597 | 89.000 | 87.023 | -1.800 | -3.900 |
| * Sorghum | 7.138 | 7.500 | 7.866 | 5.100 | 10.200 |
| * Barley | 2.975 | 3.500 | 3.290 | 17.600 | 10.600 |
| SOYBEANS | 83.701 | 83.500 | 86.800 | -0.200 | 3.700 |
| ALL WHEAT | 56.822 | 55.500 | NA | -2.300 | NA |
| ** All winter | 42.399 | 40.452 | NA | -4.600 | NA |
| ** Hard red winter | 30.491 | 29.469 | NA | -3.300 | NA |
| ** Soft red winter | 8.495 | 7.501 | NA | -11.700 | NA |
| ** White winter | 3.430 | 3.482 | NA | 1.500 | NA |
| *** Other spring | 13.025 | NA | 12.735 | NA | -2.200 |
| *** Durum | 1.398 | NA | 2.308# | NA | 65.100 |
| COTTON | 11.037 | 9.700 | 9.630 | -12.100 | -12.700 |
| RICE | 2.939 | 2.900 | 2.94# | -1.400 | UNC |
| HAY | 57.092 | NA | 57.800 | NA | 1.000 |
| SUNFLOWER/CANOLA | 3.265 | NA | 3.800 | NA | 16.400 |
*USDA reported a total for minor feedgrains at the Outlook Conference rather than individual crop totals. So we present USDA’s 2015 long-range acreage forecasts for sorghum, oats and barley.
** From USDA’s Winter Wheat Seedings report.
***USDA did not break out spring wheat and durum wheat at the annual Outlook Conference.
#Not enough survey returns to be reliable samples; Doane estimate only.
