Broiler production next year is now forecast to be 38.484 billion pounds, 149 million pounds more than last month’s forecast and 2.9 percent above the revised downward estimate of 37.387 billion pounds for 2013, according to the November edition of the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate” (WASDE) report from USDA.
The 37.387 billion pounds for 2013 would be 2.0 percent above the 36.643 billion pounds of broiler production in 2012. USDA analysts said production for 2014 was adjusted upward as moderating feed costs support continued modest growth in broiler flocks.
Broiler exports for 2014 are forecast to remain unchanged from USDA’s September report (no October report was released), while the 2013 estimate was increased by 10 million pounds to 7.395 billion pounds. If 2014 exports are 7.550 billion pounds, this would represent a 2.1-percent increase over this year and, if 2013 exports are 7.395 billion, they would be 1.7 percent over the 7.274 billion pounds in 2012.
Despite the increase in its production forecast for 2014, USDA did not adjust its price outlook for broilers for the coming year. Analysts continue to expect the wholesale broiler price, national composite weighted average, to be 89-97 cents per pound for 2014, the same range as in the September report. For 2013, the price forecast is now 99.0 cents per pound, compared with a range of 98-100 cents per pound in the previous report. In 2012, the comparable broiler price was 86.6 cents per pound.
USDA trimmed its beef production forecasts for both 2013 and 2014. For 2014, analysts now expect 24.173 billion pounds, 60 million pounds less than the September forecast and 5.9 percent less than 25.675 billion pounds now estimated for 2013. In 2012, 25.996 billion pounds of beef were produced.
Similar to the beef outlook, USDA reduced its 2014 pork production forecast by 375 million pounds and also decreased its 2013 pork production estimate by 246 million pounds from the previous estimates. The newly adjusted levels represent a 2.6 percent increase when 2014 pork production is compared with 2013 and a 0.4 percent decrease when this year’s production is compared with the 23.270 billion pounds in 2012. Hog producers indicated intentions to expand sows farrowings through early 2014 and beyond because they believe feed costs will continue to moderate. Department analysts, however, tempered their outlook by noting “continuing reports of porcine epidemic diarrhea outbreaks” will most likely weigh-on actual pounds produced.
Production of total red meat and poultry for 2014 is now put at 93.204 billion pounds, 382 million pounds less than the previous report, but 0.4 percent above the now expected 92.817 billion pounds for 2013. USDA’s reduction of its 2013 production estimate for combined red meat and poultry was almost as large as its decrease for 2014, that is 323 million pounds. If this year’s combined total is 92.817 billion pounds it would represent a 0.2 percent increase over the 92.601 billion pounds produced in 2013.
