USDA trimmed its estimate for broiler production for 2013 while holding steady its estimate for 2014 production, according to the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report issued this week from USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA now sees broiler production for 2013 to be 37.330 billion pounds, 34 million pounds less than last month’s estimate and 1.9 percent more than the 36.643 billion pounds in 2012. Also, the board’s forecast for 2014 broiler production remained unchanged from its July forecast at 38.434 billion pounds, which would be a 3.0-percent increase over this year.
Broiler exports for 2013 are now expected to increase to 7.485 billion pounds, 26 million pounds above the July estimate and 2.9 percent over the 2012 exports of the slightly decreased 7.274 billion pounds. Broiler exports for 2014 were left unchanged at 7.550 billion pounds, which would represent a 0.9 percent increase from this year.
USDA’s estimate for the department’s annual 12-city wholesale average price for whole broilers for 2013 was reduced 2 cents on both ends of the price range, when compared with last month, and is now likely to average between $1.00-$1.03 per pound. For next year, the wholesale price will likely be between 89-97 cents per pound, also a 2 cents reduction when compared with last month’s estimate. Taking the mid-point of the price range for 2013, the broiler price would be up 17.2 percent over 2012, while the 2014 estimate price would decrease 8.4 percent from this year.
USDA’s beef production forecast for 2013 was increased to 25.627 billion pounds, 20.7 million pounds more than the July estimate and 1.4 percent less than the 25.996 billion pounds in 2012. USDA’s estimated beef production for 2014 was increased to 24.213 billion pounds, 25 million pounds more than its July estimate and 5.5 percent below this year. USDA’s estimate for pork production for 2013 was slightly reduced from last month. Pork production this year is likely to be 24.403 billion pounds, 16 million pounds less than the July forecast and 0.6 percent more than the 23.270 billion pounds in 2012. Pork production for 2014 is forecast at 24.152 billion pounds, unchanged from the previous month’s estimate and 3.2 percent more than this year.
With more beef production now expected for 2013. and only modest reductions for the other meats compared with last month’s report, total red meat and poultry production for 2013 is forecast at 92.975 billion pounds, 138 million pounds more than the July estimate and 0.4 percent above the 92.601 billion pounds in 2012. Combined meat and poultry production for 2014 (93.781 billion pounds) is 25 million pounds more than the board’s July estimate and would be 0.9 percent higher than the 2013 estimate.
USDA’s Outlook Board said its forecast for beef production for 2013 was raised to reflect greater fed cattle and cow slaughter combined with heavier average carcass weights. Heavier beef cattle are expected to continue during second half 2013 as moderate feed costs and recent feed lot placements of heavy cattle will support this trend.
Broiler production during second quarter 2013 came in smaller than expected and thus triggered the trimming in the production estimates for the year. Broiler exports for this year were raised on the current strength of trade, especially as experienced in June, according to the Outlook Board. Lower broiler prices are likely for the rest of 2013 and 2014 as recent price declines are expected to persist, the report concluded.
