World poultry production is expected to increase 1.8 percent to 106 million metric tons in 2013, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) latest Food Outlook. FAO’s Food Outlook was reported by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service in its “International Egg and Poultry Review” this week. Competitive pricing of poultry relative to other meats will support production, although feed costs will continue to limit growth, the report said.
China is currently the world’s second largest poultry producer but is on trend to replace the United States in the next few years. Estimating China’s production is difficult because of culling and restrictions on the retail sale of live poultry following an outbreak of H7N9 in March, 2013. Consumer confidence in poultry meat has diminished and sales are reported to have suffered. Consequently, China’s poultry output has been provisionally set as unchanged from 2012, in contrast with the 2.6 percent increase originally projected. An outbreak of the H7N3 strain in Mexico in April 2013 is also causing concern.
| Poultry Meat Production in Thousand Tons 1/ | |||||
| U.S. | China | EU | Brazil | Russia | |
| 2012 estimated | 19,794 | 18,510 | 12,550 | 11,300 | 3,252 |
| 2013 forecast |
20,111 | 18,517 | 12,738 | 11,500 | 3,388 |
1/ carcass weight equivalent.
In the United States a 1.6-percent increase in output is anticipated as production has recovered from the 2012 slump, aided by improved prices, and a reduction in feed costs. Production growth is anticipated for the European Union, Brazil, and the Russian Federation, which collectively account for 26 percent of world production.
Continued rapid expansion is forecast for India, where output may rise by 8 percent. Among the top 20 producing countries, apart from the uncertainty surrounding China, only Japan is expected to register a fall in output, which could decline by 0.7 percent in response to oversupply and associated reduced prices stemming from a sharp increase in production in 2012 and a subsequent build up of stocks.
Poultry is the most traded category of meat and represents almost 45 percent of world commerce. Although the volume of sales doubled over the past decade, growth has stalled since 2010. This slowdown is expected to continue in 2013, when trade is forecast to increase by 1.5 percent to 13.3 million tons.
Purchases by Asia, the main importing region, are anticipated to increase by 0.6 percent because of growth in purchases by Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kazakhstan, among others. However, abundant supplies in Japan and the Republic of Korea, and concerns over avian influenza that have led to decreased consumption in China, are expected to curb imports. Imports for Africa as a whole are expected to increase by 6 percent. Among the main importing countries, South Africa, Angola, Benin, Ghana, and Egypt are all anticipated to purchase more, as income growth strengthens demand. In Egypt, culling associated with avian influenza, combined with FMD-induced high beef prices, will provide an additional stimulus to imports.
Deliveries to the Russian Federation in 2013 are expected to increase moderately, in part due to the recent customs agreement with Ukraine and Belarus. Imports by the Russian Federation remain at less than half what they were in the mid-2000s because of a considerable increase in domestic production. Rising poultry production within the European Union could lead to reduced purchases in 2013, while imports by Mexico and Canada are anticipated to change little, amid stable domestic demand. Brazil, the United States, and the European Union together account for almost three quarters of global trade. They have had little expansion in export sales in recent years, FAO said. Most of the growth has come from second-tier exporters, including Thailand, China, Argentina, Turkey, Chile, the Ukraine, and Belarus. This pattern is expected to be maintained in 2013 with the exception of China. Shipments from Thailand to the EU are forecast to rise significantly, supported by competitive pricing and EU’s lifting of an eight-year AI-induced ban on fresh and chilled products. Exports from Turkey are forecast to grow by over 15 percent due to regional demand, especially from Iraq.
The FAO Food Outlook Biannual Report on Global Food Markets, June 2013 is available here.
