USDA held its estimates for broiler production for 2013 and 2014 steady but raised its estimate for exports for this year, according to the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report issued last week from the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA continues to see broiler production for 2013 to be 37.364 billion pounds, 2.0 percent more than the 36.643 billion pounds in 2012. Also, the board’s forecast for 2014 broiler production remained unchanged from its June forecast at 38.434 billion pounds, which would be a 2.9-percent increase over this year.
Broiler exports for 2013 are now seen at 7.459 billion pounds, 100 million pounds above the June estimate and 2.4 percent over the 2012 exports of 7.281 billion pounds. Broiler exports for 2014 were left unchanged at 7.550 billion pounds, which would represent a 1.2 percent increase from this year.
USDA’s estimate for the department’s annual 12-city wholesale average price for whole broilers for 2013 remained steady from last month at $1.02-$1.05 per pound. For next year, the wholesale price will likely be between 91-99 cents per pound, compared with last month’s estimate of 88-96 cents per pound, a 3-percent increase on both ends of the price range.
USDA’s beef production forecast for 2014 was left unchanged at 24.188 billion pounds, 4.8 percent less than the revised lower estimate of 25.420 billion pounds for 2013. The estimated beef production for 2013 would be 2.2 percent less than the 25.996 billion pounds produced in 2012. USDA’s estimate for pork production for 2014 was increased. Pork production next year is now forecast at 24.152 billion pounds, 110 million pounds more than the June forecast and 3.1 percent more than the slightly revised 23.419 billion pounds for 2013. Pork production for 2012 was 23.270 billion pounds.
With more production now expected for pork and no changes for the other meats for 2014 compared with last month’s report, total red meat and poultry production for 2014 is forecast at 93.756 billion pounds, 1.0 percent above the revised downward estimate of 92.837 billion pounds for this year. Combined meat and poultry production for this year (92.837 billion pounds) is 165 million pounds less than the June estimate and 0.2 percent higher than the 92.601 billion pounds in 2012.
USDA’s Outlook Board said its forecast for beef production for 2013 was lowered to reflect less steer and heifer slaughter during the second quarter. Lower estimated pork production this year stems from the pig crop during March-May being only fractionally above year-earlier. For 2014, the increase in pork production is driven primarily by the gain in pigs per litter and the apparent intentions of hog producers to only gradually expand farrowing during the second half of 2013.
Broiler exports for this year were raised on the current strength of trade, according to the Outlook Board. Similarly, higher broiler prices are likely as strong demand is seen as supporting prices next year.
